Democratic activists push for the polls with third Chicago Women’s March

Larry Hoffman
October 14, 2018

It is no surprise that Trump and his GOP supporters wanted to spin Kavanaugh as an electoral victor; saying it is so, they dearly hoped, would lift Republican spirits. Senate Democrats have many vulnerable incumbents, and Senate Majority Leader McConnell had vowed to stay in session until October 26 to get the judicial nominees confirmed.

Just prior to the Senate's final vote to confirm Kavanaugh last Saturday, Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson of the D.C. Circuit released a statement indicating there were open complaints made against Kavanaugh over public statements he made during the confirmation process. A New York Times Upshot poll this week found Blackburn ahead by 14 points. Significantly more women think the committee's actions were deficient, 56 percent vs. 43 percent.

Gender gaps are broadest in some groups: Women who describe themselves as politically independent are 20 points more apt than independent men to disapprove of Kavanaugh's confirmation, 61 vs. 41 percent; it's similar among women age 18-49 compared with their male counterparts, 64 vs. 45 percent.

While President Trump predicts the midterms could see a "Red Wave" based on the size of his campaign rallies, political analysts say a "Blue Wave" is imminent because angry and energized voters will vote for Democrats.

Anti-Trump marches were scheduled later this month in other states, including the Republican strongholds of Texas, Georgia and SC.

"You're seeing Republicans - in the areas where Trump did well - go up in the polls because the Trump voters are reengaged and they're coming back out", McLaughlin told host John Catsimatidis.

Partisans appear more dug-in after the Kavanaugh debate, with 65 percent of Republicans saying it motivates them more to support the GOP and 66 percent of Democrats saying they are more motivated to back their own party.

The split over further investigation closely mirrors Americans' overall support for the Senate's decision to confirm him.

In House races where both parties were active on TV during the period, Democrats aired more than twice as many ads as Republicans in 31 separate districts around the country. Notably, though, about a quarter of conservatives, 27 percent, support further investigation by Congress of the newest Supreme Court member. Partisan divisions are 33-26-35 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The poll was conducted for the ABC News broadcaster and The Washington Post newspaper among a total of 1,144 respondents over the phone between October 8-11.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of NY, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Rockville, Md.

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